Based on the sources below, several groups are identified as likely to be the hardest hit by the planned UK disability benefit cuts in 2025.

Individuals losing Personal Independence Payment (PIP) are projected to experience significant financial losses. The tightening of eligibility criteria for PIP, requiring new claimants and those undergoing reassessment to score a minimum of 4 points in at least one daily living activity, is estimated to cause between 800,000 and 1.2 million people to lose PIP support. For those affected, the average annual loss is estimated to be £4,500. The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) anticipates that 370,000 current PIP recipients will lose their entitlement upon review, and an additional 430,000 future claimants will no longer be eligible.

Changes to Universal Credit (UC) will also heavily impact certain groups. New claimants of UC will see the health-related element halved from £97 to £50 per week starting in April 2026 and then frozen until 2030. Notably, new claimants under the age of 22 will be denied the health element top-up altogether. This will result in average annual losses of £500 for new UC claimants receiving the health element. While existing claimants will have their health element frozen at £97 per week until 2030, they will not benefit from potential increases.

The reforms to PIP are projected to have a knock-on effect on Carer's Allowance, with an estimated £500 million reduction in spending by 2030, potentially affecting around 150,000 people who may no longer receive Carer's Allowance or the carer element of UC. Carers UK has described these cuts as an "unprecedented step in the wrong direction".

Overall, millions of families are projected to experience financial losses, with an average loss of £1,720 per year for approximately 3.2 million families. Specific groups identified as particularly vulnerable include new UC claimants under 22 and families with older heads of household.

Disability advocacy groups like Disability Rights UK, the Disability Benefits Consortium, Scope, and Sense have voiced strong concerns, predicting increased poverty and devastating impacts on disabled people's lives due to these cuts. They argue that many disabled individuals will struggle to afford essential equipment and support.

In summary, those losing PIP, new Universal Credit claimants (especially those under 22), and carers are likely to be among the hardest hit by these changes, along with a significant number of families who will experience substantial financial losses.

The UK government has articulated several reasons for implementing the significant changes to disability benefits and aiming for a £5 billion reduction in spending.

A primary justification is the need to control the increasing costs associated with health and disability benefits, which have been described as "spiralling". Current expenditure on these benefits amounts to £65 billion annually and is projected to rise to £100 billion by 2029, exceeding the nation's defense budget. The government asserts that these reforms are essential for ensuring the long-term sustainability of the welfare system.

A key objective is to encourage more disabled individuals and those with health conditions to enter or remain in employment. The government aims to address what it perceives as "perverse incentives" within the current system and to rebalance payment levels in Universal Credit to better incentivize work. To support this goal, the government has committed to investing an additional £1 billion per year in employment support by 2030.

Furthermore, there is a stated intention to protect those with the most severe, lifelong conditions through an additional premium in UC and by ending reassessments for this group. The government believes that a significant number of individuals currently receiving health and disability benefits could work with the right support. The potential fiscal benefits of enabling more disabled people to work are also highlighted, with estimates suggesting substantial annual savings for each person transitioning from welfare to employment.

The government's intentions are articulated in the Green Paper titled "Pathways to Work: Reforming Benefits and Support to Get Britain Working" and further elaborated on in the Spring Statement 2025. The overarching objective is to achieve substantial savings within the welfare budget. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has also played a role in assessing the potential savings resulting from these reforms.

Drawing on the sources and our conversation history, disabled people have several key worries regarding the announced disability benefit cuts:

• A significant concern is the potential for increased poverty and financial hardship. Disability advocacy groups like Disability Rights UK predict that these will be the biggest cuts to disability benefits on record, leading to increased poverty for disabled people. The Disability Benefits Consortium has labelled these cuts as "immoral and devastating," warning that they will push more disabled people into poverty. Estimates suggest that around 250,000 more people, including 50,000 children, could be pushed into relative poverty as a result of these changes.
• Disabled individuals are worried about struggling to afford essential equipment and support due to the financial losses. Scope highlights the catastrophic impact on disabled people's lives, suggesting the cuts are about saving money and not driven by a moral desire to get more people into work. Many advocacy groups argue that the government's rationale fails to acknowledge the crucial role that disability benefits play in covering the additional costs associated with their conditions.
• There are fears that the increased hardship and uncertainty could lead to a worsening of mental health conditions among affected individuals. The anxiety and stress of potential benefit losses and the inability to afford necessary support can significantly impact mental well-being.
• Some analysts and advocacy groups suggest that these cuts could ultimately increase pressure on the NHS and social care systems as more people fall into poverty and experience deteriorating health. If individuals can no longer afford preventative measures or necessary support at home, their health might decline, leading to greater reliance on state-funded services.
• Disability advocacy groups express concern that the government is attempting to balance the books at the expense of disabled people, fearing that millions could lose vital financial support. Sense has voiced this deep concern.
• Carers are also worried about the impact on Carer's Allowance, with an estimated £500 million reduction in spending projected, potentially affecting around 150,000 people. Carers UK has described these cuts to carer's benefits as an "unprecedented step in the wrong direction".

In essence, the primary worry for disabled people is the potential loss of crucial financial support that they rely on for their daily living needs, which could lead to increased poverty, difficulty accessing essential resources, and a decline in their overall well-being. They also question the government's motives, fearing that fiscal savings are being prioritized over the needs and rights of disabled individuals.

Based on the sources and our conversation history, disability advocacy groups have voiced several main criticisms of the planned disability benefit cuts:

• The cuts will increase poverty and financial hardship for disabled people. Organizations like Disability Rights UK have described the planned £5 billion in savings as the biggest cuts to disability benefits on record, predicting that they will penalize disabled people and increase poverty. The Disability Benefits Consortium has labelled these cuts as "immoral and devastating," warning that they will push more disabled people into poverty and worsen their health. Estimates suggest that around 250,000 more people, including 50,000 children, could be pushed into relative poverty as a result of these changes.
• Disabled individuals will struggle to afford essential equipment and support. Scope has stated that the cuts are simply about saving money and not driven by a moral desire to get more people into work, highlighting the catastrophic impact on disabled people's lives. Many advocacy groups argue that the government's rationale fails to acknowledge the existing barriers to employment faced by many disabled individuals and the crucial role that disability benefits play in covering the additional costs associated with their conditions.
• The government is balancing the books at the expense of disabled people. Sense has expressed deep concern that the government is attempting to balance the books at the expense of disabled people, fearing that millions could lose vital financial support.
• Cuts to carer's benefits are a step in the wrong direction. Carers UK has described the cuts to carer's benefits as an "unprecedented step in the wrong direction". The projected £500 million reduction in spending on Carer's Allowance could affect around 150,000 people.
• The government's rationale is flawed and overlooks existing barriers to employment. Advocacy groups argue that the focus on encouraging more disabled people into work ignores the significant challenges many face in finding and maintaining employment due to their disabilities and lack of adequate support.
• The potential for increased pressure on the NHS and social care systems. Some analysts and advocacy groups suggest that these cuts could ultimately increase pressure on the NHS and social care systems as more people fall into poverty and experience deteriorating health due to a lack of financial support.

In essence, the main criticisms from disability advocacy groups revolve around the ethical implications of reducing support for a vulnerable population, the potential for significant negative impacts on their quality of life and financial stability, and the questioning of the government's underlying motives and understanding of the realities faced by disabled individuals.

Based on the sources, the main points of the UK disability benefit cutbacks planned from 2025 onwards are:

• Significant Reduction in Spending: The government aims to reduce disability benefit spending by £5 billion. This is described by some advocacy groups as the biggest cuts to disability benefits on record.
• Changes to Personal Independence Payment (PIP):Tightening of eligibility criteria: New claimants and those undergoing reassessment will need to score a minimum of 4 points in at least one daily living activity to qualify for the daily living component, in addition to the existing points-based system.
  Increased frequency of reassessments for some claimants.
  A shift towards more face-to-face assessments.
  Estimates suggest that between 800,000 and 1.2 million people could lose PIP support due to these changes, with an average annual loss of £4,500 for those affected. The Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) anticipates that 370,000 current PIP recipients will lose their entitlement upon review, and an additional 430,000 future claimants will no longer be eligible.
  
• Changes to the Health Element of Universal Credit (UC):For new claimants, the health-related element will be halved from £97 to £50 per week starting in April 2026 and then frozen until 2030.
  New claimants under the age of 22 will be denied the health element top-up.
  For existing claimants, the health element will be frozen at the current rate of £97 per week until 2030.
  The reforms to PIP are projected to have a knock-on effect on Carer's Allowance, with an estimated £500 million reduction in spending by 2030, potentially affecting around 150,000 people.
  
• Scrapping of the Work Capability Assessment (WCA): The WCA is slated to be scrapped in 2028, and the PIP assessment will become the sole determinant for the health element of Universal Credit in the future.
• Merger of ESA and JSA: The government is proposing to merge Employment and Support Allowance (ESA) and Jobseeker's Allowance (JSA) into a new "unemployment insurance" benefit. This new benefit would be contribution-based and time-limited, potentially impacting disabled individuals who are out of work.
• Government's Rationale: The government justifies these cuts by the need to control increasing costs of disability benefits, which are projected to rise significantly. They also aim to encourage more disabled individuals to enter or remain in employment by addressing perceived "perverse incentives" and rebalancing Universal Credit. They have committed to investing an additional £1 billion per year in employment support by 2030.
• Timeline: The implementation of these changes is scheduled to unfold over several years, commencing in 2025 and extending through to 2030.

These cutbacks are a source of significant concern for disabled people and advocacy groups who fear they will lead to increased poverty, financial hardship, and difficulty affording essential support.